2022: Correlation between aging and increasing government transfer dependency in Northumberland County?

2022: Correlation between aging and increasing government transfer dependency in Northumberland County?
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group — Official Website
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In 2022, Northumberland County received $231.9 million in government transfer payments, equivalent to $18,848 per capita.

These payments—which include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income maintenance—accounted for 30.7% of all personal income in the county, according to information from the Economic Innovation Group.

This marks a slight increase in the county’s reliance on government transfers compared to 2012, when such payments made up 26.1% of total income. Since then, the share has risen by 4.6%.

Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).

In 2022, government transfers in Northumberland County primarily focused on older adults—such as Social Security transfers, which totaled $97 million (41.8% of all transfer income), and Medicare, which accounted for $71.6 million (30.9%)—played a significant role in the county’s overall income.

On a per capita basis, Social Security payments rose from $6,548 in 2012 and $1,568 in 1970 to $7,887 in 2022, reflecting a 20.4% increase over the past decade and a 403% shift since 1970.

Similarly, Medicare transfers climbed from $3,690 in 2012 and $198 in 1970 to $5,818, marking 57.7% and 2,838.4% increases, respectively.

These increases in per capita payments align with shifts in the county’s age distribution. In 2022, residents aged 65 and older made up 37.2% of the total population, compared to 32.6% in 2012 and 16.6% in 1970. While the senior share of the population has increased, the rise in per capita Social Security and Medicare transfers suggests that these assistance programs for older adults now require a larger share of government funding—either due to growing needs, expanded eligibility, higher benefit levels, or increased enrollment.

According to the Economic Innovation Group, total income in Northumberland County excluding public assistance amounted to $42,573 per capita in 2022, compared to $61,421 when government transfers were included.

Breaking down the other contributions in the county, Medicaid transfers made up $31.6 million, a 13.6% share of total income, while income maintenance programs, including assistance such as SNAP or TANF, added another $15.5 million, or 6.7% of the total.

Compared to the previous year, Northumberland County’s reliance on government transfers decreased by 1.6%.

Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans’ income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,016 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,529 per capita) in 2022 nationwide.

According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.

Breakdown of Government Transfers by Program in Northumberland County, 2022

2022 Virginia County Rankings by Per Capita Government Transfers

County State Rank (Per Capita Transfers) Dependency on Transfers (%) % Population 65+ Social Security Transfers (%) Medicare Transfers (%) Medicaid Transfers (%) Income Maintenance Transfers (%) Per Capita Transfers ($)
Buchanan County 1 44.68% 24.25% 35.6% 20.8% 25% 12% $20,234
Dickenson County 2 48.72% 24.55% 33.6% 24.3% 24.8% 10.2% $19,994
Northampton County 3 30.94% 29.9% 31.1% 21.1% 30.6% 10.1% $19,870
Northumberland County 4 30.69% 37.22% 41.8% 30.9% 13.6% 6.7% $18,848
Wise + Norton County 5 45.13% 19.97% 31.8% 21.5% 25.1% 11.6% $18,549
Lancaster County 6 25.57% 38.57% 45.9% 24.1% 15.2% 7.4% $18,546
Henry + Martinsville County 7 38.42% 24.78% 30.8% 22.6% 28.4% 11% $18,234
Lee County 8 46.96% 23.18% 29.2% 18.9% 30.9% 13.3% $18,105
Carroll + Galax County 9 40.11% 26.4% 29.7% 22.7% 31.2% 9.2% $17,957
Middlesex County 10 29.66% 33% 40% 25.9% 17.8% 7.3% $17,882
Alleghany + Covington County 11 38% 26.18% 32.6% 24.5% 22.7% 9.3% $17,584
Nelson County 12 26.9% 29.5% 39.3% 26.7% 18.6% 7.3% $17,399
Dinwiddie County 13 37.91% 19.2% 24.3% 23.1% 28.5% 12.1% $17,388
Tazewell County 14 39.31% 23.56% 34.2% 22.8% 20.7% 10.9% $17,291
Russell County 15 42.99% 23.71% 34.3% 23.4% 23.4% 11.2% $17,290
Mathews County 16 25.34% 32.57% 40.3% 26.4% 18% 5.9% $17,198
Bath County 17 22.94% 29.72% 36.6% 31.1% 16.9% 6.8% $17,143
Mecklenburg County 18 37.43% 27% 34.7% 24.5% 23% 9.8% $17,040
Charlotte County 19 37.5% 22.68% 31.3% 26.5% 22.9% 10.7% $16,976
Pittsylvania + Danville County 20 37.73% 24.74% 30.5% 20.9% 29.2% 11.5% $16,975
Brunswick County 21 41.14% 22.31% 28.1% 21.2% 31% 11.2% $16,903
Halifax County 22 37.72% 25.8% 32.4% 21.4% 27.5% 10.8% $16,787
Nottoway County 23 37.34% 18.51% 24.8% 20.1% 35.8% 10.2% $16,770
Scott County 24 41.79% 25.35% 34.3% 24.6% 23.7% 10.4% $16,552
Essex County 25 31.97% 24.33% 34.5% 25.9% 21.8% 10.5% $16,528
Smyth County 26 36.95% 22.86% 33% 23.1% 25.3% 11.6% $16,428
Patrick County 27 39.49% 27.34% 34.9% 23.7% 22.5% 9.9% $15,903
Accomack County 28 29.13% 25.99% 34.2% 23.2% 23.7% 11.1% $15,776
Southampton + Franklin County 29 31.31% 22.12% 30.1% 21.3% 29.4% 11.4% $15,739
Giles County 30 31.27% 22.26% 34.4% 25% 23.1% 8.9% $15,487
Roanoke (Independent City) County 31 30.21% 17.88% 25.1% 19.5% 30.6% 13.1% $15,349
Greensville + Emporia County 32 39% 16.52% 27% 20.1% 33.5% 13% $15,317
Wythe County 33 34.16% 22.29% 34.5% 25% 21.7% 9.9% $15,223
Bland County 34 35.48% 25.53% 38.6% 24.5% 19.3% 6.7% $15,123
Washington + Bristol County 35 32% 24.7% 36.9% 23.9% 19.9% 10.2% $14,979
Grayson County 36 38.12% 25.87% 37.4% 20.3% 25% 9.8% $14,843
Surry County 37 28.3% 25.69% 37.4% 21.9% 21.4% 9.5% $14,837
Westmoreland County 38 29.28% 27.53% 36.3% 26.4% 18.5% 10.1% $14,822
Campbell + Lynchburg County 39 32.58% 21.47% 28% 19.6% 29.5% 9.8% $14,798
Highland County 40 29% 38.24% 47.2% 23.5% 14% 5.7% $14,651
Pulaski County 41 30.37% 23.38% 36.6% 22.4% 23.5% 9.7% $14,611
Charles City County 42 25.48% 26.98% 41.6% 20.6% 21.7% 8.5% $14,560
Amherst County 43 32.41% 22.16% 35.2% 24% 23.6% 9.3% $14,496
King and Queen County 44 26.11% 24.2% 38.3% 22.6% 21.2% 9.8% $14,439
Sussex County 45 38.17% 19.46% 30% 23% 28.3% 11.6% $14,413
Portsmouth (Independent City) County 46 31.25% 15.35% 22.9% 18.3% 31.3% 14.8% $14,382
Appomattox County 47 30.77% 21% 33.3% 22.8% 24.8% 10.8% $14,139
Floyd County 48 28.65% 24.66% 37.4% 22.7% 22% 8.3% $14,012
Prince Edward County 49 35.23% 16.85% 29.2% 24.4% 25.2% 10.9% $13,925
Lunenburg County 50 35.7% 23.57% 33.1% 19.4% 26.4% 12.2% $13,916
Franklin County 51 26.4% 24.82% 38.8% 21.7% 19.8% 8.8% $13,880
Franklin County 52 26.4% 24.82% 38.8% 21.7% 19.8% 8.8% $13,880
Page County 53 28.2% 22.43% 36.9% 24.8% 20.5% 9.2% $13,840
Buckingham County 54 36.49% 20.51% 29.2% 28.6% 25% 10.8% $13,823
Amelia County 55 25.8% 21.15% 36% 23.8% 22.1% 9.1% $13,668
Craig County 56 28.76% 25% 40% 21.2% 18.7% 8.9% $13,628
Orange County 57 22.86% 20.48% 37.1% 27% 15% 7.8% $13,473
Cumberland County 58 28.87% 23.58% 34.1% 15.4% 31.3% 12.6% $13,408
Hampton (Independent City) County 59 27.63% 16.57% 27.1% 18.1% 23.5% 12.2% $13,406
James City + Williamsburg County 60 17.4% 26.69% 42.3% 27.1% 8% 5.6% $13,205
Bedford County 61 23.6% 23.21% 41% 23.4% 16.6% 7.2% $12,940
Bedford County 62 23.6% 23.21% 41% 23.4% 16.6% 7.2% $12,940
Rockbridge County 63 26.74% 27.49% 38.7% 23.6% 18.8% 8.6% $12,931
Suffolk (Independent City) County 64 21.11% 15.26% 27.1% 19.2% 23.6% 10.4% $12,831
Botetourt County 65 21.54% 24.11% 41% 23.8% 15.1% 6.3% $12,819
Richmond County 66 30% 21.72% 34.9% 23.4% 23.6% 10.7% $12,814
Richmond County 67 30% 21.72% 34.9% 23.4% 23.6% 10.7% $12,814
Gloucester County 68 22.16% 21% 36.5% 23.1% 16.9% 8.3% $12,743
Shenandoah County 69 22.31% 22.15% 38.2% 24.8% 19.4% 9% $12,657
Roanoke + Salem County 70 21.31% 22.11% 39.9% 26.6% 15.5% 6.8% $12,598
Isle of Wight County 71 19.53% 20% 36.8% 22.2% 16.7% 7.9% $12,467
Richmond (Independent City) County 72 17.45% 14.1% 23% 17.8% 38.2% 13.3% $12,417
Augusta County 73 23.38% 22.57% 39.5% 24% 19% 9% $12,368
Norfolk (Independent City) County 74 25.44% 13% 21.8% 16.5% 31.7% 13.9% $12,186
Newport News (Independent City) County 75 25.53% 14% 25.7% 18.3% 25.1% 14.9% $11,968
Louisa County 76 23.58% 21% 39.1% 23.4% 19.6% 8.9% $11,963
Rappahannock County 77 14.81% 28.89% 49.2% 23.2% 11.4% 6.8% $11,764
Caroline County 78 22.64% 17.14% 33.3% 24.1% 20.5% 10.8% $11,660
Madison County 79 20.41% 23.19% 39.1% 22.2% 21.4% 8.6% $11,540
Clarke County 80 14.79% 23% 43.5% 26.5% 13.6% 5.6% $11,532
Goochland County 81 9.84% 24.54% 50.6% 23% 10.4% 5.3% $11,441
Prince George + Hopewell County 82 28.48% 13.24% 29.4% 19.6% 22.7% 13.4% $11,315
King William County 83 20.5% 17% 38.3% 25.2% 18.2% 8.6% $11,196
Warren County 84 19.92% 17.27% 34.8% 24.7% 21% 9.5% $11,183
New Kent County 85 10.85% 18.44% 41.1% 27.6% 10.4% 6.2% $11,160
Culpeper County 86 19.35% 16.76% 35.6% 23.4% 21.1% 9.4% $10,828
Fluvanna County 87 20.28% 21.45% 44.4% 23.9% 14% 7.5% $10,816
Virginia Beach (Independent City) County 88 16.29% 15.91% 32% 19.7% 16.1% 8.7% $10,750
Chesapeake (Independent City) County 89 18.28% 14.47% 30.1% 19.5% 17.5% 9.7% $10,688
Greene County 90 20.58% 19% 37.7% 22.3% 19% 9.7% $10,623
Henrico County 91 13.48% 17% 37.2% 23% 20.7% 10.8% $10,380
Spotsylvania + Fredericksburg County 92 16.4% 15.23% 31.3% 21.8% 19.2% 10.1% $10,267
Hanover County 93 14.19% 19.24% 44.1% 27.2% 12.9% 6.3% $10,262
Frederick + Winchester County 94 16.48% 18.75% 38.9% 23% 18.8% 9.1% $10,260
Chesterfield County 95 15.9% 16% 37.6% 22.7% 17.9% 9.2% $10,184
Powhatan County 96 14.52% 19.97% 47.5% 24.8% 11.4% 6% $9,860
York + Poquoson County 97 14.32% 17.7% 39.4% 19.8% 9.7% 7% $9,728
Albemarle + Charlottesville County 98 10.45% 20.54% 41% 22.7% 18.1% 8.3% $9,527
Rockingham + Harrisonburg County 99 18.45% 20.15% 36.8% 24.6% 18.6% 10.1% $9,496
Fauquier County 100 11.46% 17.41% 40.7% 24.1% 16.3% 6.8% $9,494
King George County 101 14.79% 14.38% 30.9% 23.5% 16.3% 9.1% $9,471
Stafford County 102 13.88% 11.43% 27% 18.1% 14.2% 9% $9,052
Montgomery + Radford County 103 18.34% 14% 34.9% 22.7% 19.2% 9.6% $8,323
Alexandria (Independent City) County 104 7.35% 13% 30.8% 20.1% 20.2% 11.1% $7,739
Fairfax County 105 7.62% 15% 35.9% 21.5% 15.2% 8.2% $7,726
Fairfax County 106 7.62% 15% 35.9% 21.5% 15.2% 8.2% $7,726
Prince William County 107 12% 11.28% 28.9% 18% 19% 11.8% $7,645
Arlington County 108 5.42% 12% 34% 21.5% 17.9% 8.9% $6,090
Loudoun County 109 5.71% 10.8% 37% 22.5% 13% 8.9% $5,534


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